Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit
Race 1 #3 HP Napoleon W/p Double 3 with 1 was out
Race 2 #1 Bronsons Delight w/p was out
Race 5 #5 Notorious Pink w/p 2nd paid 3.40 to place
Race 6 #6 Royal Renegade W/p 2nd at 16-1 paid 9.50 to place
Race 7 #1 Treacherous Reign W/p Ex box 1/3 was 4th
Race 9 #4 Born A Dragon W/p Best bet 2nd at 19-1 paid 9.80 to place
Race 12 #1 Foot Soldier w/p Won paid 6.90-3.80
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Sea Biscuit, just some unsolicited advice to you(nice capping by the way-unfortunately I bet Bronson's Delight so that is why he lost
), and you may already do this, but when betting longhots (maybe 10-1 +) and playing into odds on (below even money) favorites (Royal Renegade and Born a Dragon both finished 2nd to odds on favorites, it is not wise to bet solely win/place. I am confident if you check your results, you will find that your place performance suffers in races where there are odds on favorites. The reason is odds on favorites on this circuit (probably on just about all circuits but my data is on this circuit) do really well (They are going to win at least 50% of the time and probably be 2nd at least 20% of the time, obviously the lower their odds the more likely they win). There are 2 approaches. One is just make your win place bet and just make an extra box bet with the chalk(maybe 80/20 with the chalk on top. So if you bet 20 wp on a horse bet like a 10 exacta chalk over your horse and $3 exacta with your horse over the chalk. If your horse comes 1/2 without the chalk you get the benefit of a much bigger place payoff and if your horse comes in with the the chalk instead of making $55 and $58 on a $40 bets, yesterday the extra $13 in each race would have gotten you back another $248.50 and 174.00 on your 2 longshots. Even though you are raising your outlay on these bets by using this strategy, I don't even think you are increasing your bankroll by much because of the hedge nature of this strategy. Once they get to 1-1 and up I have found that the chalks aren't nearly as deadly. Doesn't mean you can't use this strategy to a lesser degree, but I think you
need to use this strategy against odds on favorites on this circuit.
The 2nd strategy, would be to bet to win only, and use exactas with your horse to come 2nd. So instead of $20 to place maybe a $12 exacta with the favorite over your horse and $8 worth of other exactas with other contenders over your horse. The drawback with this strategy is that if your horse wins you cost yourself the place money and if he happens to come 2nd to a non contender you cost yourself big. So if you are comfortable with win/place betting the first approach would likely be the better approach for you and may be the better approach period as I think about it. I typically use the 2nd strategy, but lately I am thinking the other approach is likely better and I think I am going to change up.
One other strategy I like for trifectas is a small Chalk/all/longshot, a bigger Chalk/ main contenders/longshot and a small main contenders/chalk/longhot in the trifecta. That way when your horse comes 3rd you are likely getting back some money. By the way the 4th ticket I would use would be redundant because of the exacta play, but Chalk/longshot/main contenders, but a lot of these will hit(in fact imo, your 2 seconds we talked about would have hit using these stategy based off of my opinion in those races).
