Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
You making some great points right up until your last sentence. If Justify is the definition of an underlay (of which I completely concur) why would you bet him at all?
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I don’t have the balls to toss him in the horizontal bets, but I will in the vertical. One reason I’m playing him in the Pick 3, Pick 4 & pick 5, is because I’ll be watching the race with my wife. If I tell her we’re still alive but I don’t have Justify in the last leg, and he wins, I’ll be in the doghouse.
As far as the vertical bets here’s what I’m doing. I’m predicting that Justify will come in 3rd or 4th. For the exacta, I’m going to toss him and pick five , tossing the Preakness runners because of the shorter rest. Of the five I settle on, I’ll bet an exacta box, in addition I’ll bet any of the five that are over 10-1 to win.
The 2014 (Chrome) Belmont exacta paid 174-1. The 2008 (Big Brown) exacta paid 330-1. Any bet with Justify in isn’t going to pay much. Why bother with crappy saver bets? There are other races on the undercard Saturday. The Belmont Stakes isn’t the be all and end all. If Justify wins, I won't kick myself; that’s what happens when you play the horses. I’ll take the loss and move on. Although I would kick myself if I missed a big score.
