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Old 07-24-2010, 03:47 AM   #12
CincyHorseplayer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markgoldie
Well Kash...

Nice post and a particular area in which I have mounted the soapbox in the past.

My answer is yes- all these feelings, shadings, nuances, leanings, suspicions, trepidations, confidences, if-this-then-that dependencies, etc. can be quantified. They can also be programmed into a computer which will then faithfully and quickly reproduce them without the minute-to-minute normal oversights and forgetfulness of the human brain.

Since I'm not a computer guy, you may wonder how in the world I can be so confident this is true. The reason is that the deterministic measurements of the mind are just that- measurements. And all measurements are capturable by numbers.

As I wrote on a simlar thread, the mind craves these numbers when it comes to any sort of quantitative measurement. So, for example, when two people are discussing even a non-standard, highly judgemental, feeling-based measurement, the need for numbers becomes evident. To wit:

Person 1: How angry was she?
Person 2: She was pretty angry. Sort of angry anyway. Not furious. But kinda angry nonetheless.
Person1: Help me out here. On a scale of 1 to 10, how angry was she?

The overwhelming dependency on numbers by handicappers is a simple result of the mind's need for accurate quantification. In fact, when you read these numbers day in and day out for so many years, you begin to understand in a strange way the verbal stories behind them. Like: "Once upon a time there was a three year old filly. She showed some promise as a two year old, but the stress of racing got to her and she needed to be put to bed. When she came back for her sophmore campaign, she initially didn't know how she felt about the racing game in general. She was tentative. Hesitent. And then one day her trainer thought: why not try her with blinkers? Maybe she just gets a little distracted by all the stuff going on around her. And so they did. And the trainer was right. Our little girl put her mind on business and she raced much better. She won two of three races and then her trainer and owner decided to try her against some better-class fillies in a graded stake. This would be the test of her life. She had the ability, but could she dig down and find her competitive spirit against proven rivals?

Stories. And yet, numbers are the only way we have to begin to predict how these intersecting stories will play out in today's race.

Power numbers, as those produced by "black-box" programs are popular because they integrate a conglomeration of numbers into a single digit. Personally, I am fascinated by them, because they attempt to accurately quantify the numerlogical 'soup." I have looked at the most famous of these- the Brisnet Prime Power number- for many years. I know this number like I would a handicapping buddy that I had spent years with going to the races and comparing handicapping notes. I have a deep respect for my buddy and I generally know how he thinks. So we agree most of the time. But the fascinating times are when we are in total disagreement. I sit there and stare at his out-of-character opinion. I go over the target horse with a fine-toothed comb. What am I missing? What does he see that I don't? What does he know that I don't? Can I bet against him here? Should I? Sure I will. But still, I'm always a bit scared because I know that unlike a human handicapping buddy, this one doesn't have brain cramps... doesn't have bad days when the wife is nagging him and his judgement is impaired. No. This handicapping buddy is like the Rock of Gibralter. And if I'm going to beat him, I know it will test the depths of my experience and knowledge of the game. How do I fare in these situations? I usually win. But not always. And when he wins, I tell myself he just got lucky this time.

At any rate, I would love to be able to discuss his handicapping methodologies with him. But I can't. There's one thing I'm totally sure of though. If he can be this good, there is a possibility that a different black-box buddy could easily beat both of us day in and day out. And so, the numbers can and do tell the stories better than humans can. Clearly there is an art into getting the numbers right- of translating all the shadings into the right number. But that's a one-time struggle with possibly periodic updates. On the other hand, once this struggle is complete, it will handicap all North American races on a given day in a matter of seconds. Show me the human artist who can do that.
In yet another long winded post that attempts to load itself with "outs".You completely missed the point of this thread.In one paragraph you transformed and reinterpreted this thread from subjective line making into objective,automaton thinking.I'll just agree to disagree here without getting longwinded myself.
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