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Old 12-02-2013, 12:50 PM   #8
thaskalos
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

The world is broken into two camps:

1. Beyer View: The value of a length changes in proportion to the distance.
2. Quirin View: 1 point=1 length

The Beyer view is that the value of a length should diminish as the distance gets longer. This is very logical.

The idea is that if you and I have a foot race, and you are faster by (say) 10 lengths (or seconds, or whatever) at 100 yards, you must be better by 20-somethings if we double the length of the race.


The problem with this actually becomes obvious if you think of the above example. Really... consider a race between you and someone you know (perhaps from your youth - LOL). If you raced a particular distance of ground, and you were 10 lengths better, would you really be 20 lengths better if the distance was doubled?
I think you are making a small mistake when stating the "Beyer view" above, Dave; this wasn't the idea behind Beyer's assertion that the value of a length should diminish as the race gets longer.

This is what Beyer presented as proof that a value-length adjustment should be made for the various distances:

When a human athlete runs a mile and his time is one second slower than the world record for the mile...then he is considered one of the world's best milers himself. But when he runs a 100-meter dash in a time that is one second slower than that of the 100-meter world record...then he is considered as nothing special at all.

This is hard to refute...IMO.

But the original poster is making a different point...which Beyer also addressed in one of his books:

The OP is talking about the adjustment that par charts make when projecting the horses' 6-furlong speed out to 6.5 furlongs.

In almost all the par charts we see...the difference between 6 and 6.5 furlongs is always either 6.4 or 6.6 seconds -- regardless of class. A stakes horse who runs the 6f in 1:08.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:15 (a difference of 6.4 seconds)...while the 5,000 claimer who runs the 6f in 1:13.6 is expected to run the 6.5f in 1:20 (the same difference of 6.4 seconds).

What the OP poster is asking is what Beyer himself asked...and what I -- and many other players -- have been asking for years now:

How is the 5,000 claimer able to negotiate the extra half-furlong of the 6.5f race in the same exact time as the stakes horse...when their ability levels are so different?

Shouldn't it take longer for the 5,000 claimer to travel that extra half-furlong than it takes a stakes horse?
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Last edited by thaskalos; 12-02-2013 at 12:59 PM.
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