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All great conversation
What I have learned is that as one person suggested was to take a deeper look. I always do if I have time first run all the numbers i.e. speed, variants, pace. Then I will put those depending on whose figures you are using and then take a look at the pps. Crunching numbers is a very long process and unless you are using somebody else's software or your own set up. What I find is speed numbers are figures to the cycles they are run in, and how they fit with a horses fitness and the trainer's style to getting the horse to run in the condition book and the class i.e. someone mentioned dropping class or moving up.
The same goes for horses that are young with only a few starts and have run their best number the last start. In terms of Math, what I have found, either that horse with the 73 will jump up at a price and bump off the 80 but it is rare.
I have been keeping my own par figures for NY and California for two years. Believe it or not, the types of wins as Dave Schwartz point out is sprints or routes, depending on the class or the conditions dictate type of winner, E or EP, most races are won by an Early and in a whole card. I believe in taking the par and a horses best average speed to the par and then equate that, it gives mre of a level playing field etc.
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