Something caught my eye when I was looking at the Group Life Insurance Data published by the Society of Actuaries
here that I mentioned back in post 132
here.
The following is a cut and paste from Page 19 where the actuaries start presenting data for each quarter broken out by Cause of Death:
https://www.soa.org/48ff80/globalass...-mortality.pdf
Quote:
5.1 CAUSE OF DEATH
Cause of death continues to be difficult to study, as there is a significant delay in assignment of this parameter during the course of the claim adjudication cycle. In the third quarter of 2021, for example, an incidence rate of 1.05 (approximately 27% of third quarter incidence) is still attributable to claims with Unknown causes of death as of September 30, 2021, which is comprised of both reported claims without diagnosis and unreported claims. While it appears the mortality rate due to COVID for second quarter 2021 will remain lower than previous quarters, even after Unknowns are allocated, the COVID mortality for third quarter 2021 is already approaching that of the highest quarters (Q4 2020 and Q1 2021). Accident incidence continues to be fairly constant. In 2020 and early 2021, the Unknowns appear to have settled at 5% to 6% of total incidence.
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I draw your attention to the last sentence that I bolded in the above quote:
"In 2020 and early 2021, the Unknowns appear to have settled at 5% to 6% of total incidence."
Immediately beneath that sentence on page 19 is a graph labeled as Figure 5.1 that shows "INCURRED INCIDENCE RATES PER 1000 LIVES BY CAUSE OF DEATH" for each quarter.
I took a screenshot of Figure 5.1 and attached it as a clickable thumbnail to the bottom of this post.
Before attaching it I used a yellow mouse pen to highlight deaths classified by the actuaries as UNKNOWN for Q3 2021.
If you look closely at the clickable thumbnail of Figure 5.1 below you'll notice that the Unknown deaths were a steady 5% to 6% of total incidence through Q2.
And then suddenly spiked during Q3 2021 (jumping from 0.26 in Q2 to 1.05 for Q3.)
Q3 2021 just so happens to be when The White House, The US Military, Fortune 500 Companies, Health Care Networks, and Colleges everywhere began implementing Vaccine Mandates.
Now here's the interesting part:
Reuters ran a FACT CHECK back on 03-25-2022:
https://www.reuters.com/article/fact...-idUSL2N2VS1BI
Quote:
VERDICT
Misleading. There is no evidence that there was a 84% increase in excess deaths for people aged between 25 and 44 due to COVID-19 vaccines, as claimed in a video on social media. CDC data shows excess deaths related to COVID-19, not COVID-19 vaccines. CDC told Reuters other factors may also have contributed to excess deaths in millennials.
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So the Reuters Fact Checker claimed the Excess Mortality seen in Q3 2021 was attributable to Covid deaths.
But the Society of Actuaries reported actual Covid deaths for Q3 2021 separately on Figure 5.1 below.
However, their numbers don't show a massive spike in Covid deaths as claimed by the Reuters Fact Checker.
So whose numbers are right and whose numbers are wrong?
The Actuaries working for publicly traded Insurance Companies who have to pay out claims and report quarterly numbers to shareholders?
Or the so called Fact Checkers?
If a betting market were offered:
My money would be on the Society of Actuaries.
-jp
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