Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
I not denying that the owners, horsemen and jockeys, agents, grooms, et al, seek to profit though wagering by any inside info they might have at any given time...but I do see a difficulty identifying these actions in the betting pools as being distinctly theirs...I mean, how can anyone know whom is betting on what...? How do you know it is horsemen betting and not some shark or whale that has directed fluctuations in the various pools...?
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Of course you would find it difficult identifying any betting scenarios that the connections (or anyone else) might be employing. That’s because most people assume that a basic perusal of just the live odds at any given time during a typical betting will disclose this type of information. While on occasion this might happen, generally viewing the odds (just the Win pool) is inconsequential at best in terms of revealing anything of significance on its own (other than the actual market value of each entry).
Because of my limited understanding of how the tote analysis (I use) is formulated, I can only add that I know it’s based on an elaborate relationship between all of the available mutual and exotic betting pools. The foundation of this relationship was developed through an intense study successful human betting behaviors. This involved a detailed examination of the money flow in terms of the Where, the When, and How much is proportionally being wagered.
So in my mind it not just a question of whether or not the connections are betting or even identifying their action. It becomes a matter of recognizing explicit betting patterns when certain resulting criteria are met. Then it’s a matter of acting on it, in terms of determining whether or not there’s a potential valued return in a specific type of wager.
