Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
Is he speaking about the lowest priced horse on the board after the last betting or the horse who got the most money in the final rush of betting? I understood it to be the latter.
Not sure how you quantify it but those runners getting a "disproportionate" amount of money on the final click relative to the betting during the previous 20 minutes is what I care about. I bet that would be an interesting report.
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The 35% win percentage has been a fairly constant stat for a number of years. I don't think it has dipped below 33% in a while. It may have. I don't track that stuff year to year.
It is the final odds. I don't know if anybody has tracked 2 MTP favorite stats or not, or if that has changed over the years with computer aided betting or not. It might be a valuable analysis.
A large number of bettors wait until less than 2 MTP. I understand why they do it, and the computer age may have influenced the stats significantly. I would presume so, but have no data to back it up. Sharps are gonna sharp. Hard to defend against that.
My best defense would be the 'random stop betting' thing or implementing some sort of restriction on large bets late an multiple small bets from a single source late. I don't have a cure all that would be acceptable to all, and as AE pointed out, hindering the 'whales' isn't something tracks are really keen on doing without currently - at least not without some sort of protection for them that is acceptable.
A LOT of people bet late. No frequent bettor can deny this. Whether it is whales or small timers. Everybody waits.
