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Originally Posted by DeanT
Hey Ray,
Do you have ROI data as well? When I tracked Woodbine/Mohawk a couple of years ago I think post 6 was ROI flat profit.
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Nobody can make money in this game by betting post positions blind for the simple reason you have to bet every race to find out which ones will come through. Betting every race at a track will definitely send you to the poor house sooner than you think. In my humble opinion post position stats by mutuels are meaningless.
However you should be aware of which posts are winning more often than others at a certain track and you can only do that by by keeping stats of the win percentage of each post.
For instance the win % of post 5 currently at Woodbine is 18.7 and of post 6 is 15.9 much higher than the rest of the posts. For post 10 it is only 4.3.
It used to be that post 6 was the winningest post at Woodbine in the mile races but I dont think they are keeping separate stats for the 7/8 mile distance which they should. I am sure that there is a big difference in the stats for these 7/8th mile and the mile races as far as post positions are concerned.
It is also my belief that nothing should over ride your basic handicapping skills. Factors such as driver changes, trainer changes, post position switches, class changes etc etc are all secondary. Your ability to recognize a form horse and your basic capping abilities are the only way to go in making money in this game.
When a good form horse at Woodbine moves to the 5 or 6 hole, by all means go for it.
My 2 cents.
Sea Biscuit
