I completely agree with the idea of playing only those races which are more comfortable and most potentially profitable. Being forced to play a sequence of races governed by a Pick-whatever bet is not my cup of tea especially because a player has no idea how the subsequent races after the 1st race will develop in terms of entry odds value. My type of game limits me to only play on a race-by-race basis and permits me to focus on the overall return value.
As some might recall I don’t do any form of handicapping to determine playable selections. The sophisticated real time tote analysis I use routinely points to the entries of interest. This is accomplished by comparing the individual values generated for each entry with the value of PAR. This is done at specific time intervals during a typical betting cycle. Those 3 entries whose value is closest to PAR are considered playable, but only if their combined ODDS produce an acceptable profit margin. As mentioned previously this Dutching profit margin must equal or exceed my established Hit frequency %. There is never a need to concern yourself with the take-out % because the ODDS shown already reflect the take-out. In other words, WYSIWYG in terms of dollar return.
Tote Analysis for Race #1 – Hong Kong / Happy Valley – Wed 1-11-23
Code:
# Odds Win Place
Total: 0 $29,218,351 $0 $25,627,734 PAR 395
1 8.0 $2,598,272 $0 $2,848,269 1 493
2 32.0 $725,041 $0 $897,115 2 557
3 9.0 $2,316,479 $0 $1,774,949 3 345
4 45.0 $517,822 $0 $612,909 4 533
5 77.0 $308,418 $0 $463,596 5 676 3
6 9.0 $2,264,710 $0 $2,306,942 6 458
7 48.0 $487,529 $0 $696,817 7 643
8 5.0 $3,618,306 $0 $3,261,540 8 408 4
9 4.5 $4,365,701 $0 $3,943,070 9 406 1
10 99.0 $241,829 $0 $345,120 10 642
11 1.5 9575415 0 5972790 11 281 2
12 9.0 2198829 0 2504617 12 513
As shown in the above example only the following entries are of interest:
#3 @ 9/1,
#8 @ 5/1, and
#9 @ 4.5/1
The Dutching Calculator indicates a profit margin of
123% which was a definite play.
Code:
LOW MID HI BET PRF PRF %
4.5 5.0 9.0
$11 $12 $20
$20 $18 $11 $49 $61 123%
$110 $110 $110
Overall Race Results
Winner #9 - $11.00
$2.00 QUINELLA 9-11 $14.00
$2.00 TRIFECTA 9-11-5 $1163.20
