12-11-2023, 03:08 PM
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#84
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,118
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
I have never ever made a post suggesting I wanted to Caw to leave the game. That is others, not me. I have said if they chose to leave the game it would be better off (but that is because many seem to think they will exit the building if my suggestion of no rebates and a 8 % wps take, a 10% exacta/double take and 12% all other exotic take was put into effect) but no advantage gambling game should ever be predicated on eliminating winners.
Let's just use the exacta and double pools for an example. Lets say they currently make up 35% of these at NYRA. Nyra currently has a 18.5% take on these pools. So $100,000 35 k is being bet by caw at probably about -5%. 65 K is bet by public. $18,500 takeout. Caw loses $1750. Public (non caw for the sake of this post) loses 16,750. That is means that public loses 25.8 % (16,750/65,000). It is close enough to reality (I think Crunks numbers may have public doing slightly worse). Tomorrow, racing waves it's magic wand. No rebates. Public bets the same $65,000. Now caw has to make money. They suddenly are maybe $15 k at +5 %. So yes day pool drops drops 20% Now the 80 K pool has a takeout of $8000 (new 10% takeout). Caw wins $750 with their 15 k bet. Public now loses $8750 (8000 takeout plus the $750 caw wins) on their $65,000 bet, New takeout on non caw bets 13.46%. Now obviously if non caw bets go from losing 25.8% to 13.46% on exacta/doubles, the public will bet more. There will be more winners (climbing a 13.46% mountain is far easier than climbing a 25.8% mountain) and everyone will be losing money a lot more consistent with other forms of gambling. Over time the public will bet more. More people will enter the game. More people will stay in the game. The caw is not going anywhere. They will adapt to whatever the game gives them. As the public bets more, the caw is able to bet more (in other words if the caw can bet 15% of the pool at +5 % then then if the public doubles it's betting over a certain period of time, the caw will double the amount they bet over the same period of time. So the game grows over time instead of declining over time (imagine that). If you can properly market the sport on top of this and introduce it to a huge market of advantage gamblers the growth potential is pretty enormous. Or we can stick with the status quo. What says you?
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That would be an ideal scenario,If just one track did try that across the board for a substantial period of time it would be interesting to see the result,That would be the real bold move...but probably never happens.
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