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Old 11-07-2015, 07:38 PM   #4
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NorCalGreg's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Lesson for Lasix-

Aqueduct race #5 has just been run and won by a 40-1 gelding out of the Rodrigo Ubillo barn. Taking a look at PP's, here's what I saw:

1. Horse ran FTS race at Bel -6.5 dirt and showed some early speed at 18-1, no lasix

2. Runs second race from 3 month lay-off at Sar - 1mile 1/16 turf and showed some early pace, faded at 21-1, no Lasix

3. Runs third race from 2 month lay-off at Bel 6F Turf and shows improved early speed on fast pace, fades at 28-1, 1st time Lasix

4. Today's race is only 14 days since last, back on dirt at Aqu 1 mile, still straight MDN, part of an entry who scratched, adds blinkers, jock switch to Trujillo, 2nd time Lasix, 2nd off layoff, who's trainer is 10% +3.03 ROI, shows early speed and takes lead into turn, WINS drawing off by 8 at 40-1......

Did I have it?.....NO...Will I learn to pay more attention to Lasix?....Hope so.
Good post, RR. You saw a lot of tip-offs there, as did I. I just couldn't get past that 3% trainer(year) & 9% jock stat. Perhaps I should have paid more attn to Ubillo's lifetime 2nd-off huge +$3.03 stat as you mentioned.
Little hidden gems like that --added to
I completely ignored all that---only considered Ubillo's 1 for 37 record for 2015--tossed POPPED THE HOOD in a heartbeat. Thanks for the lesson.

One other thing.....I looked at that last race of POP THE HOOD: it sure looks like that one is gonna turn out to be a KEY race. BRIMSTONE, the runner-up in today's race,had a strange comment from the chart caller in that race:

BRIMSTONE tracked the pace along the inside in hand, spun just off the inside for home in behind MEMORYKEEPER, steadied briefly straightened away off that rival's heels before shifting to the seam down on the rail, the rider's charge seemingly hesitant to go through,got put to hand urging a furlong out rallying through the seam and finishing with interest along the inside to the wire.
Hmmmmm....maybe the NY boys who rail against the jockeys actually have something? Brimstone was over 20-1 in that race---he appears here today @ 6-1? For what? He ran 2nd today to what amounted to a "ringer" in Pop The Hood. His connections had every intention to win today and bet like it.

The horse you want to keep an eye on, who helped set that hot pace, and stayed til the bitter end--was a horse named JUNGER @ 10-1. He's going on the HTW list.
good luck
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