__________
as you can see from the image, statistician Mike Shackleford, who runs the Wizard of Vegas website documented about 2,100 games for road dogs and found them to be profitable by 2.57%
of course, that's not a high %______ not really anything to get excited about
however, in the image you can also see that the away pick was profitable by 13.25%_________but only 59 games were documented
even though it was only 59 games it led me to believe that if you limited your bets to games where the road dog got only 4 or fewer points the % might be healthier
so, I used the data from covers.com to calculate how this idea would do
I calculated every single game from the 2020 season where the road dog got 4 or fewer points
the results are as follows:
𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐠𝐨𝐭 𝟒 𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝟑𝟗 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝟔𝟓 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝟑𝟗-𝟐𝟔 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝟔𝟎% 𝐰𝐢𝐧 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞
𝐚𝐧 𝐑.𝐎.𝐈. 𝐨𝐟 𝟏𝟒.𝟓𝟓%
anybody that wants to double check my figures can do so at covers.com
when this season (2021) is over I will update this post with the results
I am not doing playoff games because of my personal belief that they carry more unpredictability
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