Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I've been on this horse the entire Triple Crown... 
Today is his day. That's it. No doubt about it. This race defaults to him. A rare Belmont where a stone-dead closer will come from out of it to win...you heard it here first...
My value line:
 Lookin At Lee 2/1
 Irish War Cry 3/1
And that's it...no other contenders...yawn along with me now...  |
Lee and War Cry are the top 2 and the winner will depend on the pace. IWC's failure in the Derby can be explained by the fact that he had a bad trip, in the words of Beyer " a wide move into a hot pace". He has rebounded in the past in the Wood after a "poor" Fl. Derby and should do so again provided the Belmont pace is not crazy fast.
Lee, as a stone closer, benefited from the hot Derby pace and will need a hot pace again to repeat that performance. He may get this as the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts a fast pace. He will also appreciate the distance.
As with many tactical distance races, the result will depend on pace and how the jocks adapt to it.
