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Old 06-30-2015, 07:16 PM   #71
Aner
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Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Aner, I truly enjoy following your picks every Saturday for the first half of 2015. I love enhancing methodologies that appear to have promise, yours being one of them. I have revised my previous post in order to get maximum potential, while having limited info. Here is what I see:

1st Quarter Results-

Out of 23 winners, 14 of them were 11-1 and higher:
58.00
56.40
55.60
50.60
48.80
46.00
42.40
41.60
39.80
38.00
33.80
31.20
28.00
26.40
-------
Total- $596.60
You have 60% of your total winners producing 81% of your payback.

2nd Quarter Results-

Out of 18 winners, 9 of them were 11-1 and higher:
92.40
87.60
57.20
52.60
50.20
31.40
31.20
27.40
25.40
-------
Total- $455.40
You have 50% of your total winners producing 76% of your payback.

1st Half Totals-

Out of 41 winners, 23 of them were 11-1 and higher:
Total payback on these winners- $1052.00
You have 56% of your total winners producing 79% of your payback

In closing, these are very promising results for a sample size of over 600 bets. It's now up to you, going back to your records and see just how many total bets you had going off at 11-1 or higher to calculate your ROI.

Don't forget to make conditional wagers with 0 or 1 minute to post, through Xpressbet or another entity who have this feature, and bet all 3 picks conditionally at minimum 11-1 in each race, thus forgetting the highly erratic morning line......Just set it, and forget it......Good Luck...
Thanks for encouraging me to optimize. Because I did not have final odds for my 608 picks I was forced to look it up. Thank you Equibase for such good records.

I was a little surprised when I looked over the data. It appears super long ones are the only source of profit.

Final odds are 10:1 or less


# of win bets = 164
# win bets cashed = 18
hit rate = 11.0 %

$ win bet = $328
$ win back = $279.90
$ net = minus ($48.10)
% loss = 14.7%

# of place bets = 164
# place bets cashed =32
hit rate = 19.5%

$ place bet = $328
$ place back = $218.4
$ net = minus ($109.60)
% loss = (33.4%)



Final odds are 11:1 to 19:1


# of win bets = 188
# win bets cashed = 11
hit rate = 5.8%

$ win bet = $376
$ win back = $354.20
$ net = minus ($21.80)
% loss = 5.8%

# of place bets = 188
# place bets cashed =26
hit rate = 13.8%

$ place bet = $376
$ place back = $292.80
$ net = minus ($83.20)
% loss = (22.1%)


Final odds are 20:1 or greater


# of win bets = 255
# win bets cashed = 12
hit rate = 4.7 %

$ win bet = $510
$ win back = $697.80
$ net = plus 187.80
% gain = 36.8%


# of place bets = 255
# place bets cashed =28
hit rate = 11.0%

$ place bet = $510
$ place back = $592.80
$ net = plus $82.80
% gain = 16.2%
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