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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
bet all 3 picks conditionally at minimum 11-1 in each race, thus forgetting the highly erratic morning line......Just set it, and forget it......Good Luck...  |
This philosophy is the wagering basis of my Black Box program. However, we test every track in 11 primary rankings methods, all at the same time in "All Record" mode which cycles through all 11 methods in each race, recording qualified picks and their results to 11 different record keeping sheets. Once the testing session is done we then analyze each record keeping sheet to find the best method for that track that meets our individual goals (number of plays, hit rate, ROI, and net profit based on $2 flat bets). All tracks are also analyzed to see which of the top 3 rankings in each method does best, and at what minimum odds (0.01/1 or higher through 11/1 or higher (each of the top 3 rankings have their own stats, for all the minimum odds ranges).
The 11 rankings methods range from pace oriented velocities versus pace pressure, to proprietary total velocities (highest or a mixture of averages), to power+form+velocity (PFV), to a Consensus method, to a Class method or Distance method or Class/Distance method. So we are looking at every race in many different ways and our record keeping sheets tell us which ones do best, at each individual track.
Some tracks allow us to bet all 3 top ranked horses at a minimum odds range, 2 of the 3, or a single ranked horse. Record keeping analysis is of primary importance in the Black Box, as it tells us what is actually happening at each track, not what we perceive is happening, because the record keeping process is ongoing. After we play each card we record our plays to update the record keeping sheets before playing the next card. All of this is automated within the program, except for the record keeping analysis, we do that old-school, looking for consistency and reducing or deleting any outliers.
I doubt many players would think much of betting multiple horses in races, to win, but there are 2 success factors in racing, hit rate and average payouts. Average payouts alone can make us successful, but some tracks just don't have a high enough average win payout to allow success. So, the logical solution is to produce a better hit rate, thus the multiple win bet philosophy at a minimum odds level.
I was never a win bet player, seriously, until the multiple win play thing hit me between the eyes. The degree of variance in racing can, and will, doom you, if you don't find a way to mitigate it, and multiple win plays at acceptable odds can be that mitigating factor, IMO.
