Quote:
Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail
...
Quick notes
1 - toss
2 - FTS
3 - ML Favourite - not really impressed by his last start...
4 - FTS
5 - plodder, possible for bottom of verticals
6 - beaten 2x favourite, rider change, wouldn't be surprised if this one goes off as post time fav. Could win, but expect this one to be an underlay. Wouldn't be suprised if this one becomes a double digit race maiden
7 - taking the drop from 2 non-descript MSW starts, though speed figs put him in the hunt. A threat, and maybe worth a shot if he goes off at his 5-1 ML
8 - FTS
9 - Decent race in debut. Off two months, took 4 weeks to work after debut, then off another 3 weeks before next work. A threat, but has question marks
10 - dropping slightly in price off a fair debut
None of the horses with previous starts jump off the page. If the 8 looks good in the paddock and on post parade, he's my pick
8 w 7,9,10
|
Okay, I will play along and wet my feet with what is historically my worst time of the year. At least this one could kind-of pass for an inner dirt dandy.
1 - Ran in one of the earliest of two-year-old races of NYRA '16, vanished for nearly a year, reappears in hyper-realistic spot and runs pretty lousy. Can excuse both as jumping-off points and love that he came back with a good work off the race, but needs to improve a whole lot to do anything more than boost some exotic pays at best.
2 - FTS cost $25k and starts for $25k for top barn. But, this looks like one to let other people cover just because its Rudy.
3 - Hard to believe that this slowpoke could be 3-1 away from the Lakes.
4 - Frost Giant is representing with his third foal in the first four of the field and like the other two... takes some creativity to get into, primarily the barns decent returns with debuters at the level.
5 - First glance he looks a mess of nothing but really, he's just done roughly the same thing that almost every contender has done, just a handful more times thus eliminating any sex appeal.
6 - Seems like a real cheap horse. All of these kind of seem that way to a degree, but he seems like he actually might have talent. Cheap in his approach. Looks like he'd find a way to the crack the bottom of the super in the Maiden Stakes at Rillito.
7 - Probably the most interesting member of the field, just because he has an actual angle to work with as he dips in for a tag after two starts against breed maiden allowance runners.
8 - You've got a Linda Rice FTS that has been at the farm until coming to the track a bit and uncorking a trio of generic breezes at intervals that lack any symmetry. That sounds like a horse that's begging to take way more action that it probably warrants by default.
9 - Like the eight and the Rudys, this one just glows logical because it's Pletcher, he ran okay, and he's only been beaten one time in his life. But it's not a very good race and this looks like another tough one to like at the likely odds.
10 - Tried to make a case, but outside draw, lifeless debut, lack of comeback work off of debut conspire to steer me away.
If I had to play the race, I think I'd land on win plays on
and/or
at the right prices and even maybe some exotics keying off of them with other obvious players.
