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Old 12-28-2017, 01:59 AM   #89
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 938
Rep Power: 13 Poindexter will become famous soon enough
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
I think we established in an earlier thread that the whales do not get any exotic pool information other than what is available to everyone.
You are misunderstanding my post.This isn't about info that has not hit the toteboard yet, this is about different ways of estimating how what a horse will go off at. Lets take the 6/5 number 6 horse. In the daily doubles the probables
are for $2
1-6 $12
2-6 $25
3-6 $13
4-6 $21
5-6 $45
6-6 $51
7-6 $99

To estimate how much the 6 is in leg 2 of the double you basically have to calculate how much it would have cost you to get back $100. So(i am just rounding in my head)
1-6 8.33333 x
2-6 4x
3-6 7.7x
4-6 4.8x
5-6 2.2 x
6-6 2 x
7-6 1 x

so to get back $100 we would have to play about 30 combos or $60. So essentially the horse was about a 2/3 shot in the doubles.

You can do the same with the double pools starting in this race, but of course the odds are constantly changing.

At the end of the day we have something like this at 1 minute to post.

#6 6/5, 2/3ddleg2, 4/5 ddleg1, 1-1 exacta on top.

Based off of this information the public now has a fairly good idea that they likely will not see 6/5 on this horse as a closing price.

The daily double leg 2 pool is closed so this never changes, but the other 3 pools are constantly updating. It would take very little for the racetracks to give patrons this extra information so they have a lot better idea what the horse likely will pay, assuming a couple of the posters above are correct.

We can do it ourselves, but to do so we have to design a spreadsheet and constantly paste the updated probables or know how to program the spreadsheet to update itself. But it is too much work for 99 out of 100 people amd it takes them away from doing what they should be doing-strategizing their betting.

All I am saying is that I assume whales take all this into account when projecting the final odds to make their betting decisions with the aid of their computers, so why not provide a helpful tool to help the public make more informed betting decisions since they are the victims of all these late odds changes.
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