05-23-2022, 07:42 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,803
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Trying to explain all the weird betting on Preakness 2022
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...kness_2022_123
Excerpt:
HRN’s Ed DeRosa was not as convinced this was the case. He felt this running of the Preakness was an outlier that he never had seen before.
“You can’t have a horse be 80-1 in a $1 million double pool and 13-1 in the win pool and seriously think that’s a bunch of Joe Blows taking a flyer on a long shot,” he said. “Two horses (Happy Jack and Fenwick) with a 1 percent chance to win both took 6 percent of the money. It’s incredible.”
With $14,650,560 in the win pool, Midland noted that it did not take very much money to influence the odds. Happy Jack attracted $928,654 in win bets; Fenwick $845,448.
“Honestly, $14 million is a pretty small win pool for one of the three biggest races of the year,” Midland said. “Maybe across the entire country an extra $500,000 got bet on the two long shots. And $500,000 is only 25,000 people betting $20 on each horse. That’s nothing.”
In the end, all that money bet into the win pool on the long shots was lost, just like all the money bet on Epicenter, who was a clear favorite in all the pools.
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