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[jocko699]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

The competition this year is suspect, that's for sure. I liked Messier in the Derby, mostly on his speed figures regardless of the small California fields he faced. That didn't work out so well.

Epicenter hasn't done much wrong, but he has been run down in two of his last four races. IF, and it's a big IF, he represented the best of the 3YO crop like past generations, he should have won the Derby with something left. The blanket finish in the Derby is a tell that the field was poor - the low Beyers are another tell. Epicenter was all out at the finish, and if he's a lower class horse like I believe he is and at the peak of his career, he may regress.

Had Epicenter run the same figure in the Oaks, then yes he wins with ease. He probably would have appreciated the shorter distance as well. Even if he bounces a few points in the Preakness, he could still win. But I see his pattern as topping, and Secret Oath perhaps setting up for a move forward. I don't get the impression that Epicenter's TF figures will improve for a fourth race in a row, but of course speed figures are only part of the equation. I guess we'll find out in about 30 hours. This year the tote board and post parade will be how I play the race, and neither Epicenter or Secret Oath will offer much value. Nor do the other two logical contenders, Early Voting and Simplification. A slight move forward, and Early Voting wires the field at 5-2?

(Ooops)

Just checked the early betting in the BES-Preakness $2 doubles. The chalk 10 with the four logical contenders pays:

$15 Epicenter
$37 Secret Oath
$46 Early Voting
$69 Simplification
$109 Creative Minister

The others are all much higher. You may be right, maybe the 2 dog is the "wise guy" horse. For those that bet him, let's hope he runs better than the wise guy horse(s) in the Derby.

Good luck!

Epicenter was 2/5 to win a little while ago.