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Old 05-09-2022, 09:11 PM   #1
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jay68802's Avatar
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 14,380
Betting, The Good and Bad of Derby Weekend

Started the weekend with the Oaks / Derby Double. Not proud of this bet. Was 5 x 5 and only played for $2. The problem was with the will pays. Not the amounts, but the fact that I bet some low payouts the same as the higher ones. In the end, it did not matter, because the bet lost.

Derby day was planned out. I had two key horses picked in the American Turf. Played Doubles to and from these two horses. Played a pick 3 keying these two in the second leg, and started a Pick 4 with these two horses.

With a $500 budget, this is how I played. The doubles were 5 x 5, for $2, 5 x 2 and 2 x 3 for $10. The pick 3 was 5 x 2 x 3 for $5. And the pick 4 was 2 x 3 x 5 x 8 for $.50. Total bet was $480.

With Obligatory winning the Derby City Distaff I got alive to the two horses I was keying in 2 Doubles, the Pick 3 and 4. This race was the highlight of my weekend. With the 9 Stolen Base winning and paying $13.60. Even though it was quite a ways away from the 12/1 ML, I felt I had found good value. The Double payed $605 and I was in profit for the day right away. Cashed in the other Double and my pick 3 in the next for $855 and a total of $1,460.00 for the day. Yep, a $980 profit, and a Pick 4 ticket that is alive. When Santin won the next race, was alive going into the Derby.

We all know the results of the Derby. And needless to say, I did not cash the Pick 4. The problem I have with it is that I am wondering if I made an error here. Would like to here opinions on this. I stuck with my budget. If I decide to go over budget by $10, yes, a measly $10, I hit everything. Yep, my spreadsheet had Rich Strike at #10. Using 10 in the Derby puts me at betting $510, instead, I bet $480.

Last edited by jay68802; 05-09-2022 at 09:12 PM.
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