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Old 01-06-2022, 04:47 PM   #17
dnlgfnk
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Join Date: Feb 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I can't speak with any authority about Beyer's handicapping methods, because I know practically nothing about what the man really does when he handicaps. Yes, he has written books...but the written word is severely limited when it is asked to convey the real prowess that a man brings to his craft. There are people out there who call Beyer a "speed handicapper"...when his books reveal him to be as close to a "comprehensive handicapper" as a horseplayer can effectively get. He compiles and analyzes speed figures...he analyzes pace scenarios...he gathers copious trainer stats...he deciphers track surface irregularities...and he also obsesses about the trips of the individual horses. That's about as complete a game as a horseplayer can possibly play, IMO.

You seem obsessed with "Charlie"...and you keep referring to him in your handicapping posts. Has it ever occurred to you that Beyer might have exaggerated Charlie's success at the windows, just to make a point? Authors do that sometimes, you know...they call it "artistic license". In any case...I have rubbed shoulders with several "trip handicappers" in my day...and, although they all talked a "good game"...none of them was successful enough to entice me to put "trips" on the handicapping pedestal that some place it on. When it comes to the "mystical" parts of handicapping...practicality seldom catches up to the theory of the topic. In my opinion, at least.
I wondered some time ago about Andy exaggerating Charlie's exploits for effect, especially after TLG considered him more of a physicalist, as well as discovering the rearrangement of events regarding Gulfstream '77. You and others labeled it "artistic license" then as you do now, which was fine. I've gone my own way by now with some personal insights, I hope.

Since becoming aware of the expertise of the Public using comprehensive factors, I now recognize that every-race applications will only get one a loss at the takeout rate, and selectivity is required.

I'm sure Andy is fine cashing on Big Coach, since the best situation for figure makers is that elusive, competitive fig horse who otherwise looks bad enough to be 11-1.
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