Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Start by trying to predict the winner 3 fur out. I mean during races you have no interest in nor preconceptions concerning. You'll be wrong far more often than you might expect. And that hinted, to me at least, of dynamics in play we know little of.
|
I'm certain I'd be wrong a LOT of the time on winners, but I think I'd be able guess where the winner was going to come from (front or back) fairly well if I handicapped the race, knew the horses and styles well, and could visually see to race to determine if the development was extreme.
A lot of my plays are related to race flow and bias either from analyzing past races (upgrades and downgrades), projecting an advantage or disadvantage today, or my preference which is an insight about both in the same race. I have a large database data I've been studying for years to refine my thinking and test ideas.
IMO it's just the nature of the game that there are some extreme setups and biases that almost dictate the results, but more often than not I think these things are only impactful enough to separate otherwise similar horses and don't help bad horses enough for them to win or stop the really superior ones.
