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Light if you average $3.00 to show with a 75% hit rate(i know you do slightly better) I would strong suggest you use round robins
Break your show bets into a series of 6 races (can be multiple days). Parlay races
1-2-3-4, 1-2-3-5, 1-2-3-6, 1-2-4-5, 1-2-4-6, 1-2-5-6, 1-3-4-5, 1-3-4-6
1-3-5-6, 1-4-5-6, 2-3-4-5, 2-3-4-6, 2-3-5-6, 2-4-5-6, 3-4-5-6.
15 parlay at say $20 each. Investment $300
If you hit just 3 of 6 show bets you lose your entire investment of $300.
If you hit 4 of 6 races(29.7%), you hit 1 parlay for $101.25 and lose about $198.75
If you hit 5 of 6 races(35.6%) you hit 5 parlays for for $506.25 and make $206.25
if you hit 6 of hit 6(17.8%) you hit all 15 parlays for $1518.75 or a profit of $1218.75.
Risk amount $300.
Expected return
.297*101.25 ($30.07) plus
.356*506.25 ($180.22) plus
.178*1518.75 ($270.34)
For your $300 investment you have an expected return of $480.63 or about a 60% roi.
A show bet by itself is .75*$3.00 or $2.25 or a +12.5% roi.
Or another way of looking at it is as follows:
4 of 6 0.297 -198.75 -59.02875
5 of 6 0.356 206.25 73.425
6 of 6 0.178 1218.75 216.9375
<3 of 6 0.169 -300 -50.7
180.63375 expected profit
You are at 77%. Also just imagine when you hit the show bomb and nail 6 straight winners.
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