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Originally Posted by MJC922
I suppose if you need to average $3 to show you could set a minimum odds requirement 'range' maybe 5/2 - 7/2 ? and base that final odds requirement range upon the DD probables matrix from the completed first leg. I don't see how else I could attack that problem.
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Odds don't cut it. You have to watch the show pool. A quick way to estimate what your show payout will be is to look at the ratio in the show pool between your horse and the show pool. You want your horse to have a maximum of 1/4 of the show pool. So if the pool is 40K, you don't want your horse to have more than $10K on it. Otherwise pass the race.
What this does in general, is assures you get at least $2.60 in return regardless of what comes in. This is the minimum I will accept. Small fields can return less than $2.60 if the 3 chalk hit the board.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
Anyway the other 'moving part' to it is that some horses just hang and win less so there are imbalances in the place and show pools that will reflect that ratio but may not be entirely visible (until the end when it's too late anyway).
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95% of my show bets are strong closers. Hangers are usually not strong closers. The 25-1 shot I picked to show at SA was the best closer in the field. The hanger turned out to be the favorite, who I estimated would bounce off his last race.
