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Originally Posted by ScottJ
2835762]If we change your show price to $2.60, you have a negative return. If we change your win price to $9.00, we have a positive return. How you derived your percentages (25% win, 75% win) and prices supports your argument without any rationale for the numbers.
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75% show hits is based on my own experience and ability. Mine is actually 77%.
As for the 25% for win bets I was being generous to win bettors. When I play online contests, the vast majority of players are below par (negative ROI)
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Originally Posted by ScottJ
Your bias (preference) is then to cash often without consideration of value on the wager itself.
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I never said that. To clarify: $3 is the minimum average a show better needs to strive for if his hit rate is 75% as explained by the 100 race ROI example I posted.
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Originally Posted by ScottJ
One element that is not outdated is that your show payoff is controlled, in part, by the others that hit the board with your horse. Yes, net-pools have helped in some pricing scenarios however your price is still pegged to others hitting the board.
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Yes, but it works both ways.
Your win betting is also controlled by last minute money dropping the odds on your horse which is the norm today rather than the exception.
