Quote:
Originally Posted by Light
I suggest that Show betting beats Win betting. Here's how.
A decent win better can hit 25% of his bets @ an average mutuel of $8.00. Over 100 races that is 25x8= $200 return from $200 bet (100 races x $2 each). By breaking even in ROI, this win better does better than the majority of horse players in win betting so this is a realistic example.
A decent Show bettor can hit 75% of his show bets @ an average mutuel of $3.00. That is a return of 75x3=$225. An Roi of 12.5%.
ROI score: Show better 12.5% Win bettor 0%
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If we change your show price to $2.60, you have a negative return. If we change your win price to $9.00, we have a positive return. How you derived your percentages (25% win, 75% win) and prices supports your argument without any rationale for the numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Light
The high hit rate in show betting also protects you psychologically because there are no long droughts as in win betting which can cause you to make unwise "desperate bets" and further reduce your ROI.
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Your bias (preference) is then to cash often without consideration of value on the wager itself. Wager value is not equated to just price as a $3.00 win price could be value while a $40.00 win price could be terrible value.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Light
There seems to be an archaic concept when discussing show betting that it returns some measly payouts. People who believe that know nothing about show betting.
Yesterday at SA 5th I played a horse to show that paid $12.40 to show. No I don't get these a lot but I certainly get $4 or $5 to show enough that more than makes up for a $2.60 return I sometimes get.
If you think that playing show betting is about betting the favorite to show and being happy with your $2.20 to $2.40 to show and not going outside your box, then of course show betting doesn't pay. But your understanding of show betting is outdated.
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One element that is not outdated is that your show payoff is controlled, in part, by the others that hit the board with your horse. Yes, net-pools have helped in some pricing scenarios however your price is still pegged to others hitting the board.
