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Old 08-07-2023, 03:28 PM   #9
Inner Dirt
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,798
Tough question as my equine investing career has taken many turns. First went to the track in 1975 with my step-dad and that was in SoCal
where I stayed until finally escaping in 2010. SoCal and I believe Cali as a whole was slow on adopting exotic wagering, and off track wagering. My memory could be off but I think when I first bet at Santa Anita in 1979. You had the early & late double, and a handful of exacta races.

I believe not all races had exactas, and trifectas did not exist here yet.


I did way better in my early gambling years percentage wise than later. The internet cancelled all the easy edges I had from dedicating myself to compiling data and I did my own Beyers before he published them. Then what took 20-40 hours a week to compile a person could get in 30 minutes of internet surfing. From 1975-1993 I made a good percentage of my income from gambling, after that I am in the red. In spite of all the gambling I worked over 40 hours a week, I just got by on little sleep. I was one gaffe away from going full time.


Pre OTB I liked a pick six at Del Mar, you had to play it at the track, it would mean missing work. Soon to end they had a monthly bonus
for perfect attendance, that increased by the month. Mine was up to $500 a month. I had $128 ticket marked up and there was a couple day carryover.


I was also thinking about seeing if I could work a half day but the Del Mar drive time is not predictable, it can be real slow. I just went to work. Probably $13 an hour then on a 10 hour swift. Earned $160 gross. That attendance bonus went on like another 2 months $1000 gross. So going to work was worth $1160 more than a break even day at the track.


Next day open the paper, thank God it wasn't hit, $225,000 carryover!
I should have stopped there, between the 12 horse names circled in Sharpie on my DRF was all 6 winners. Back in the day Del Mar seemed very kind to speed. So I made a decision that cost me $125k or so after taxes, oops!


Back to the original question over the whole course of my betting horses. I think Pick 3's or 4's have the highest ROI. I don't play exactas or trifectas much and I don't even think I every got a sign up on one or hit a $50 box
exacta for a good price. I had some nice win returns back in the day, but it seems every time I emptied the wallet to bust the bank I lost. I was a failure at let it ride. Pick Six's have been a bad luck bet. I have 3 career taking down the whole pool. All of them were on days of no carry over. The biggest one paid $36k, and had some longshots on it that made it obvious I could have been a single winner easily on a multiple day carryover. It was a inner dirt card at the big A and all pick 6 races were sprints and there was a strong inside speed bias. I played a $128 ticket. After 4 races I was the only live ticket. That kind of sucked as I pretty much had a chalky horse and a longshot in every race. The first 4 races the longshots beat my chalky horses. It finished up a $20 horse won leg 5 and a 6-5 won leg 6.
I think that could have taken down a 1/4 mil pool or higher.


I will say what I think is the best value combined with chance of cashing are the horizontal pick 3's and 4's. They usually pay more than parlay and provide opportunities if you are flexible in how you wager. I have had some nice hits playing straight ones and 1x2x1's or others using few selections.
The thing I noticed most about Pick3's and 4's is how if the M/L wins or not matters greatly at all the tracks I played. It doesn't even matter if the M/L
was a mistake or suspect. A horizontal wager with nothing but M/Ls can often pay less than parlay.
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