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Kinchen took some heat in this thread. I don't know him personally and never met him, but I'm going to defend his handicapping. I think he's good.
I think what he generally does is both look for the most logical winner and horses that could provide value because they might be better than they look on paper. If he finds good value he talks about it. What he doesn't often do is go fishing for a price trying to beat the favorite when he thinks it's legitimate.
I have no idea how he actually bets these races, but when you are a public handicapper you are kind of screwed. If the favorite is legitimate and you don't want to bet on or against it but you still have to give out some kind of pick what are you going to do?
On TV it's hard to say "I think you should pass this race" because the favorite is legit, doesn't offer good enough value, and I don't have a live longshot to use with him. You can either give out the favorite or go fishing. Privately, you can pass it.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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