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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
Plus, there is the idea between bettors like yourself (who are seeking to interpret the motives of a presumed inside within the wheels of the tote) and the insiders themselves, that is, how much of any given betting shift is a product of the insiders' action, versus the "noise" of extra dollars added on to that shift once a selection is identified as being "live"...?
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When you’re able get a handle on where the money is going and how its incrementally flowing (the Betting Patterns) the “noise” as you put it is just that and more often then not becomes inconsequential. This is especially true with the extremely large betting pools in HK.
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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
Is there a danger that a normal shift in wagering might be read as "insider action" that begins a snowballing effect by persons such as yourself, that leads to more of the same false reading of the horses' real chances? This is probably why you wait until 4 min to post to bet....to reduce that effect.
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This type of situation is definitely in play at the smaller tracks with limited sized betting pools. It’s real easy to get false readings, because the insiders know how to occasionally create enticing decoys that are then bet by those unaware of the other betting activities. This happens because once again the unsuspecting bettor is focusing on just the Odds (The Win pool). When in fact there’s lot’s of other activity taking place. Sometimes the Exacta pools (in the States) or Quniella pools (in HK) generate as much or more betting action as the Win pool!
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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
But I'm thinking that in large enough pools, these shifts are tough to gauge and that is where the exacta will-pays come in....because insiders seek to maximize their gains in these pools, and for "action eyes" like yourself, these will-pays are really the only place where shifts can be reasonably distinguished...thus you and Formula2000 are students of the exacta pool will-pays primarily....and there is no way to see the entirety of these exacta pools matrix, and evaluate them at the same time, without a computer program that is able to do this in real time....this is well beyond the resources of the average bettor...so while you may be right about the insider method, very few of us on the outside are in a position to utilized it and benefit from it, ourselves....
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Your thinking in terms of the betting pools is one-dimensional (At least from the standpoint of how the analysis I use works). From what I understand, it doesn’t gauge shifts, it basically examines and compares the action in all the pools with the individual entries simultaneously. It doesn’t focus on any single pool. But you’re right, I think for anyone it would be physically and mentally impossible to perform any type of satisfactory analysis in real time.
Even if I could I wouldn’t divulge the intricate workings of this analysis. I’m sure my mentor took no chances either by encrypting all of the proprietary stuff. However, that’s not to say I won’t continue to offer some selections like those shared on the HK threads. Anyone, can take advantage of making those Dutch win bets before the actual HK betting begins by using the HK tote board, because the early odds for all the races are there. Granted they won’t be as accurate as those close to post time, but using them with any 3-entry Dutch calculator will produce profits. Of course if you're like me and don't mind the early morning wagering then the actual odds are at your disposal.
