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Old 10-01-2008, 03:28 PM   #4
JeremyPlonk
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 27
I would say that you can markedly see a difference in the average times based on the air temperature, so the theory that heat affects the all-weather surfaces can now be mathematically worked in by handicappers. You can use the Polycapping tools and come up with your own pars based on air temps, etc., and go back and see if a fast or slow time might be a different variant than the traditional powers would make it, thus giving a slick handicapper an edge.

The reputation of Polytrack as "unsolvable" very much so rests with its most visible graded stakes. The public has been miserably off in those races and favorites have scored light years below the national average. But if you look at each race class, the percentage of winning favorites stacks up about right at Keeneland in most categories vs. the national norm. But, people certainly look at those major, high-profile races and make their opinions.

Speed certainly does not own the advantage it does on dirt, but to look for Silky Sullivan in each race is just as much a losing proposition. That stats show you want a horse well-placed after the opening half-mile, but not setting the pace. Call them "pressers" or "stalkers" or whatever term you subscribe to, but dead-set speed and dead-set closers do not find the winner's circle nearly as often.

Good luck with the tools!

JP
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