Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
My problem with will-pays is as follows: Santa Anita's average DD pool is less than $30,000 but I will use $30,000 in my example. If a 4-1 horse wins the first half of the DD it will mean that approximately 16.9% of the DD pool will be used in determining the DD will-pays. So there will be $5,070 of live tickets to compute the winning amounts. In a 10 horse field for the second half of the DD that comes to just a little bit over $500 per horse. I doubt that volume of betting will provide much efficiency to rely on. The math for P-3s and P-4s gets even worse for efficiency.
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Good point, but since the pools are closed and all the action is in, the double pools should be relatively efficient. Any crazy overlays in the doubles would have been noticed by the sharpest players and corrected late in the double betting.
In the early win pools, none of that corrective action has taken place yet.
