NEW SUMMARY THOUGHTS ON SAFFIE AND OTHERS
If you had field size for all races for a particular trainer, and knew his win rate, then you over a large sample, would have an average win rate. For example, 10 horse average size, 10 percent average rate.
We are not able or are not generating this in the analysis. However, common sense is that average field size is not less than four in Florida as an example and he even beats that figure.
If he continues to win at 2-3 times the average trainer, again not having the numbers, then presumably the best investors in horses, with big dollars, would give him horses. It again seems to me that either these trainers I mentioned originally do not want the big dollar farms and horses, or behind the scenes people know they really are not that good. When a P&L is done for Klaravich maybe they lose but have prestige and their P&L is worse than small claiming trainers, but the point is are they really true horsemen?. I leave that to the gut instincts of people, but my gut says no.
They are business guys, who are doing well, in their field of expertise, independent of betting or returns to us. It is more of a judgement on how you view trainers. I know in my heart of heart Graham Motion is a true horseman, and I love the game because of people like him, much more than McKnight, but I wager almost daily and have to consider McKnight, Joseph etc. with jaded optimism.
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