Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
First time Lasix, first time gelding, first time two turns, first time turf, and gets a new pilot. What I call the classic "shake up" horse. Like the breeding. Percentages of connections are higher than the ML %. Addition of Lasix could be explained by the last race. They tried to get to the front in last and that will not be a good idea here. If you are spreading in the race the %'s say to use. As a straight win, not for me. A saver bet, for sure. The fact that the win %'s of the connections are twice that of the ML say use, but lightly.
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Now that I look at the scratches, they have to beat the 3 out of the gate. Wire to wire or nothing. The 3 has not gone that fast and has offered no resistance when passed by others. Add the fact that the 5 can get the lead, another first for the horse and he has a good shot, but you will not get the odds. Odds dictate the play. Small bet as the favorite, mid size at 5-2 - 3-1, if over that I would take at most a $25.00 risk.