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Originally Posted by Track Phantom
100% agree with this. We are not peers of Andy and his job is tremendously more difficult with more scrutiny. I am curious from Andy, if he feels inclined to answer, if, given his position, if it is more valuable for him to pick a higher quantity of winners at a likely smaller price, or forego a higher win percentage to land on longer priced winners on occasion with more of those running underneath?
I know we as horseplayers look more for the longer priced, hidden runners, and the information associated to it, but Andy has a much bigger audience that may force his hand. Or maybe he doesn't think about any of this.
One of the toughest calls for a public handicapper is a situation where you have a heavy favorite that looks very tough (say 6-5 morning line) and another runner in the race at long odds you really like (say 12-1 morning line) that might beat the favorite 1 out of 5 times. Do you put the price on top?
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Shouldn't the idea be to pick the one you hope has the best value? It's impossible to know what odds any horse will be, as well as what it's actual chances are of winning, but you make your best guess. I don't feel a need to put the most likely winner on top, but more the horse that is my best guess will pay off the most in the long run. Sometimes this is a short priced horse but sometimes bigger priced horses.
There are a lot of things I think about when making my picks but one is not to focus on necessarily absolutely having to have the likeliest winner on top. We all bet horses that we know are far from the likeliest winner but the odds, at least hopefully, will compensate for that. Since I approach my job as a bettor, this is the way that makes me the most comfortable.
Having said that, I try to be careful not to haphazardly put excessively long priced horses on top, not that I won't bet horses like that, and will say so on air, but sometimes those horses are better second or third choices. That way, when I do, hopefully people will realize I actually do like that horse more than just taking a bit of a shot.
It's far from an exact science, and I don't want to tell others how to do their jobs, other than to say make sure you have the integrity to bet at least something on any horse you pick that is over say 4:1. Don't take shots with other people's money just to feed your own ego. That's inherently dishonest.
