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observation = I'm hoping/guessing that today he can repeat what I've already seen him do.
extrapolation or something new = I'm hoping/guessing that today he'll improve because of a change that will help him.
Sometimes the best value is in the 'new thing'.
examples:
+positive
Horse has been dueling in blazing hot 6F sprints and fading in the stretch. Today's race is at a mile, and the pace is projected to be slow...
If the horse is a good price, you believe that he's worth a shot to wire this field, even though the public's opinion is that this horse will not appreciate the stretch-out.
-negative
Horse raced in Maiden Special Weight, and then 50k last time. Speed figures fit the pars. Today he drops to 12.5k. However, you've noticed an issue with the horse, and believe there is enough adversity today that the horse will fail in spite of the steep drop. (technically; Here you are actually tossing him from your observation, while the public is betting on him from their extrapolation...)
but when you are hoping/guessing or just plain betting on how something new will 'translate', you have got to be getting a really nice price. It doesn't always pan out the way you'd expect, and it's easy to find yourself watching a different race than you had 'imagined' you'd be watching.
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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