Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09
A day at the track can be very interesting simply just listening to the reasons bettors have for wagering on a horse(s). The more you listen the more the theme never changes " I HOPE this horse can get the lead...MAYBE this trainer can change this horse. This trainer or jockey stiffed this horse last time out MAYBE today they will be trying etc.Wishing, hoping guessing simply does not cut it.
I am far from an expert in handicapping BUT it seems imperative if you are attempting to play for profit to wager only when you have a strong reason, backed by careful record keeping to make a wager and making sure the wager has VALUE. Why wager on a situation where you don't have the percentages in your favor?
Like the 'old' adage a good bet is a bet that you would make again even if it lost, because in the long run you know the bet was a good bet and when dealing with good bets you want to let the percentages play themselves out over a long period of time.
|
I agree on all counts, especially the last paragraph.
An honest decision must be made regarding your goals. Are you trying your best for a test-of-skill, or are you here for the entertainment and occasional rush?
If you are testing your skill, you have to be able to say "I don't know" the
majority of the time, after you handicapped a race. Doesn't mean you are doing it wrong, or are dumb. The majority of the time, there's simply not enough to meet your criteria for value. Sometimes, things seem too in line with the expected betting. Other times, you are 'hoping' or even
expecting that a horse or rider will do things differently today for whatever reason (class, distance, post position, track-bias, clear-cut logical tactics, whatever...). These 'hopes' can be traps. Easy to justify a play because the change today seems obvious. However, you have to allow for the hope. You had better be getting long-shot odds, if you are extrapolating anything.
Your last paragraph rings especially true; Process oriented > Results oriented.
