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So many horses win and lose in races that don't play out the way you imagine or they don't conform to their running style that I lost those kind of rationalizations. You are betting overall ability most times and if a horse has it they can win in many ways.
I hear you about good bets. Although I say that after many years playing in a mechanistic way that squandered much good handicapping. I have usually had good hit %, ROI, avg mutual but it was always dependent on monk like proficiency. A normal bad run could water it down quickly and it was beginning to really irritate me. After a 2015 stoppage and reset on contender and track selection that righted that ship I had a brief reset on per bet expectation and what bets to make. Each instance required seemingly simple changes to an experienced player. The revolution of simplicity! Anyway my good bets I now never regret. Even after raising my 12 year avg win mutual by 30% I am happier to report my per bet expectation return is stuck around 7.60-1. I'm not changing, second guessing, or wishing for more to happen than that. Unless I can hit jackpots!
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