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Old 01-29-2018, 01:41 PM   #68
Poindexter
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
Regarding it being hard or easy, it is simply numbers. 4 million was bet. That was 20 million combos played. Of the 20 million combos played, around 450 connected(I don't know the exact numbers or takeout). As mentioned beore it even started, the 2 in leg 4 was likely the horse singled the most, so he made it a lot easier.

The payoff was okay. The pick 5 paid $4000 and parlayed to the winner of the 7th made for the equivalent of a $24,000 payoff for 50 cents(of course they payout for 4 as well, so maybe a $26,000-$28,000 payoff for 50 cents which is about $11,000 for a 20 cent pick 6. Due to the reduced takeout on the pick 6 (carryover offset most of the take out) you had a little premium.

As just mentioned with a carryover and so much being bet the takeout washes out the carryover so the value is not in the carryover, it is in the reduced takeout and the nature of how players are playing. In the days leading up to the mandatory payout, a couple of the pick payoffs were very good(despite a ridiculous takeout), because so much money was being bet chasing the impossible longshots and trying to pull down a jackpot. On the mandatory payout day, the playing field shifted to a normal pick 6, but with so many people playing, you are going to see tilt on the heavy favorites(I got a kick out of Kurt Hoover asking Matt on TVG the strategy for playing the rainbow 6 as he doesn't play it-Hello Kurt-this was a regular pick 6 with carryover-the same kind you play 50 time a year at Santa Anita-you don't have to bet 20 cent tickets) The heavy chalks on the card were leg 3, who won, leg 4 who won and leg 5 that lost. With 2 of these 3 horses winning that killed any chance of getting a really good payout, because the key to pick sixes is singles. Most players single someone, somewhere, if not 2 or 3 horses and if they don't they likely are not going to find the longshot winners like we saw in the final leg. In a pick 6 it is typically inevitable that at least one price horse(oddball) pop up. If they dont, it pays squat and eveyone and their grandmother brings down the pick 6(as would have happened had the 8 had a clean break in the final leg).

There was a lot of discussion on whether the winner of the last warranted play. When you are spreading a race, doesn't matter. You use any horse that has any real chance of winning. If I line a race, I typically will take horses up to 30-1 my line. I didn't line the race, but not a chance I would have made him over 30-1 in the race.

The bottom line is, hitting pick 6's is not about finding all the winners typically, it is about managing to get them all on 1 ticket. You basically have to do everything right and after that a little lady luck doesn't hurt. The larger the budget the easier it is, the smaller the budget the tougher it is. Had I played my preferred approach which would have cost about $1200 bucks or so, I would have hit, but did not feel this card warranted that kind of play. So I played for a fraction of that and of course ended up with 5. That is sort of the nature of the beast.

Completely off topic but just to give an example of how crazy this game can be. Last night saw there was a carryover at Hawthorne. So I print out the pp's
handicap the card as fast as I can and with about 5 minutes to post, come up with a caveman ticket of $192(I don't even bet Hawthorne Harness). I don't want to put $192 into it. So I start reviewing, find a couple of horses I need to add, now I defintiely cannot play a caveman ticket because I am now at
2-4/3-5-6-8/1-2-3/3-4-5-6/1-3-4-6-7-8 which would have brought my caveman ticket up to $288. So I get cute and play needing my top choice in either the 2nd or 3rd (I have cost myself some nice scores doing this before, but that is the limitations of a budget-there are also plenty of times that you save yourself $144 and nothing becomes of either ticket or you hit anyways). Brought my cost down to $144 (not much different than the $192 ticket I started with). So you can guess most of the story, of course both of the top choices who were heavy chalks in the 2nd and 3rd lost so going into the 5th, my original ticket of $192 that I did not play is live for like $4000 to $15000 some might have been even more and I am live to 7 horses, while of course in acutality I am dead. This is where the brutailty this game becomes obvious. Had I stuck with my original $192 play, guess what, one of the 2 horses I did not use wins the final leg at 17-1(nothing wrong with the horse per se, I just drew the line at 7 horses when I needed 8-you make these types of choices in race after race but in the pick 5's and pick 6's, when you make the wrong choice in the wrong race it can cost you 1000's or even tens of thousands of dollars). So at the end my decision ended up costing me zilch, but prior to the the last race I was one upset individual. The winning pick 5 I believe paid about $17000, but the problem is that whe you hit these things you knock the price down substantially. I assume that 2 hit it at $17,000 so a 3rd person hitting knocks the price down to $11,300. That is the good thing about 4 million dollar pools, you can hit for $17,000 and only knock down your ticket price a tiny amount, not $5700.

Last edited by Poindexter; 01-29-2018 at 01:47 PM.
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