Quote:
Originally Posted by bigeastbeast
After nearly half a century at this game,I'm convinced that handicapping doesn't get it done often enough.Too many horses win today that are off 3-4 weeks or more.Of course,horses in general don't race as frequently as they did in the 70's and 80's.So there's that.
I now believe that the tote board gives you a better chance of finding "smart " money.
Tonight in the 4th at Turfway,a F&M race for non-winners of two in the past year,I noticed that the outside horse had been bet down well below its morning line and had been heavily bet in the double.
Sure enough,it started slow before circling about 5 horses on the turn and blowing past the rest in the stretch.
It's possible that this type of approach works best for sprints,claimers,and possibly females.
I'm hoping that my next 50 years will turn out better.
BTW-For harness racing,I'm beginning to believe that more winners can be found from the charts and followed from there.
|
I still bet harness horses off of trip and chart analysis, but it's also not as easy as it used to be. And the reason is the speed and post bias. For instance, years ago at Roosevelt/Yonkers, if I saw a horse do something in a race that made me salivate waiting for its next start, and the horse drew post 7 and 8, I still bet the horse and I hit a lot of winners and exactas with the horse finishing first or second. Now, if I see a horse that I think is ready to win on a half mile track and the horse draws 7 or 8, I will not bet the horse.
But it goes farther than that. If you see a horse that looks ready to win, or has a hidden tough trip, like being shuffled full of pace, the next time out the horse has to be in a situation where it either has a good post, or is going to leave the gate. Position and driver strategy is much more important now in harness racing. But, you can still bet trips but you have to be selective.
