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Originally Posted by Jay Trotter
Using the BRIS Track Bias Stats for Tampa Bay 9 on Wednesday, March 16th (Free PP attached) I'm trying to figure out the true Impact Values for Posts 2 and 3.
Total Races = 124
Rail Impact Value = 1.41 Win = 16%
1-3 Impact Value = 1.15 Win = 13%
4-7 Impact Value = 0.93 Win = 10%
8+ Impact Value = 0.90 Win = 9%
The way I read these stats is that the Rail has an IV of 1.41 and Win % of 16; and that Posts 1 to 3 inclusive have an IV of 1.15 and a Win % of 13.
How would you calculate the IV and Win % for Posts 2 and 3 only not 1,2 and 3 as the stats seem to show.
Any input would be appreciated,
Trotter  |
It is not just post position; it is post position with respect to turn length (radius). For instance at Saratoga the turn length is 1476 feet, at Belmont it is over 2,000 feet and at Churchill Downs it is 1,296 feet.
Why do these numbers matter? It is because the race starting positions relative to the turn is different given the same race distance and this affects the post position impact value.
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