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Turfday,
In the original approach, which was %starters / %winners this was certainly true.
However, most people producing IVs today are, I believe, smart enough to actually count the "expected winners" based upon actual field size of the races. Thus, a horse in PP1 is expected to win 0.20 of a race in a 5-horse field and 0.10 in a 10-horse field.
The new formula of IV becomes:
Wins / ExpectedWins
Granted, this is not perfect, but it is probably pretty close to reality.
I think a bigger concern with PP should be that some tracks actually favor the outside posts over inside posts. In our software we have factors called "insidedness" and "outsidedness," which is probably a better way to go.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 03-14-2011 at 10:29 PM.
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