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Originally Posted by hrspwr
Glad this question came up and thank goodness some provided a formula cause I am clueless on the math, but I am curious how many players utilize post position IV's? I never do, but maybe I should?
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I only take into account those positions that produce a percentage of winners that is significantly higher (or lower) from a statistical standpoint than would be expected just as a result of normal variance. (For example, at the time that Quirin wrote
Winning at the Races, he found post position 1 to be a positive factor in one-turn dirt sprints of six furlongs or less, as well as in two-turn dirt routes of 1 to 1-1/8 miles. Post positions 1-3 were positive factors in two-turn turf routes from 1 to 1-1/8 miles at tracks where the main dirt oval was one mile or more in circumference, since the turns on the turf course were generally tighter than on the main track. (Outside post positions were at a disadvantage from an impact value standpoint, but I don't believe that any qualified as being significantly bad from a statistical perspective on either dirt or turf.) Individual tracks and surfaces can vary from day to day, but I still find Quirin's research a useful "plus factor" to remember.
