Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay Trotter
Using the BRIS Track Bias Stats for Tampa Bay 9 on Wednesday, March 16th (Free PP attached) I'm trying to figure out the true Impact Values for Posts 2 and 3.
Total Races = 124
Rail Impact Value = 1.41 Win = 16%
1-3 Impact Value = 1.15 Win = 13%
4-7 Impact Value = 0.93 Win = 10%
8+ Impact Value = 0.90 Win = 9%
The way I read these stats is that the Rail has an IV of 1.41 and Win % of 16; and that Posts 1 to 3 inclusive have an IV of 1.15 and a Win % of 13.
How would you calculate the IV and Win % for Posts 2 and 3 only not 1,2 and 3 as the stats seem to show.
Any input would be appreciated,
Trotter  |
Assuming there were at least 3 horses in all those races:
Rail (post#1) = .16 * 124 = 20 wins (rounded)
post#1-#3 = .13 * 124 * 3 = 48 wins
posts #2-#3 = 48-20 = 28 wins = 11% winpct (28/(124*2))
To get the IV, we'd need the total runners, but again if we assume that there were at least 3 horses in all those races, we know that that the rail IV was 1.41, which means the expected number of winners was approx 14 for the rail. So that means that 14*2 = 28 expected wins for 2-3, which is just what we have. So posts 2-3 get an IV of approx 1.0.
Right?
