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[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Link to the ABC News/Ipsos poll:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-pol...t-following-it



According to the Statista website there were approximately 168.31 million registered voters in the US during 2020.

Doing some quick math:

545/168,310,000 = 3.238072604e-6

Or, maybe this way is easier to visualize:

545/168,310,000 = 0.000003238072604

There are approximately 35,800 thoroughbred races in my 2021 database.

(35,800) x (3.238072604e-6) = 0.11592

or:

(35,800 races) x (3.238072604e-6) = 0.11592 races

Fyi, 0.11592 races is roughly the same as a single horse from a 9 horse field.

Imo, the statement by the authors of the USA Today article "Almost six out of 10 Americans want former President Donald Trump criminally charged in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot" has about the same statistical accuracy I'd have if I created a model for betting thoroughbreds after randomly selecting a single horse from a 9 horse field and using that as my development sample.

It might be an interesting exercise.

But the sample size is way too small to make accurate unbiased predictions about future events.



-jp

.

i am looking at your number of 168 million registered voters and comparing them to the number of actual votes cast which were (supposedly) 160 million... that number is basically impossible. at a minimum, out of those registered voters, 15% of them have no clue who to vote for in the middle of a pandemic and will not vote.

i know that Trump claims he got rigged. he might have been rigged, or he might have done some rigging on his own, or more than likely both sides did plenty of rigging. there is no way in hell that 160 million people voted in the middle of the pandemic to vote for either one of those 2 jerks. `