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THE DATA BASE CONTAINS TOTE BOARD INFORMATION ON THE TOP FOUR SELECTED HORSES, WHICH ARE GENERALLY THOSE SELECTED BY THE BETTING PUBLIC AT ANYWHERE FROM ONE MINUET TO ACTUAL POST TIME. AN ATTEMPT IS MADE TO MAKE THE SELECTIONS WITH TIME TO PLACE A BET.
THE WIN PROBABILITY OF EACH HORSE IS DETERMINED BY SUMMING THE WIN PLACE AND SHOW POOL DOLLARS AND THEN NORMALIZING THAT FIGURE INTO THE PERCENT WIN PROBABILITY.
THE MINUM PERCENT PROBABILITY CONSIDERED FOR EACH HORSE IS 10%.
A MATRIX IS CONSTRUCTED LISTING THE WIN PROBABILITY FOR EACH SELECTED HORSE.
LINE MATRIX IS THEN SUMMNED AND MULTIPLIED BY THE HORES’S WIN %
THIS FIGURE IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE “BET SIZE”.
FOR DISPLAY PURPOSES, THE BET SIZES ARE THEN NORMALIZED TO 1, ALLOWING THE TOTAL BET TO BE 1 UNIT
THE ANALYSIS AND RESULTS FOR THESE PLAYS IN REPRESENTED IN 60 COLUMNS OF EXCELL. IN SETS OF THE FOUR SELECTED HORSES.
COLUMN HEADINGS IN HORSE RANK ORDER:
DATE
PGNO
BET SIZE
$1 TRACK WIN PAYOUT
TRACK, RACE #, POST TIME, EXACTA POOL ETC.
RECORD COUNTER
NUMBER OF RACES
WIN INDICATOR
THE REST OF COLUMNS ARE FOR ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
RESULTS:
WITHOUT ANY ANALYSIS FOR ALL TOP FOUR HORSES
213 RACES, 167 WINS, FLAT BET $1 RETURN OF $0.79, BET SIZE RETURN OF $0.82
WITH ANALYSIS
1ST RANKED, 43 RACES, 15 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.94
2ND RANKED (CONDITION 1), 116 RACES, 23 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $1.01
2ND RANKED (CONDITION 2), 140 RACES, 34 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.95
3RD RANKED, 78 RACES, 17 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $1.21
4TH RANKED, 162 RACES, 13 WINS, $1 RETURN OF $0.95
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Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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