Quote:
Originally Posted by MONEY
I have no idea what you are asking of him.
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".....if you are using handicapping factors, you are dealing with INDEPENDENT variables. it is not good practice if one is attempting to make a prediction model to mix both."
I am asking him to explain what he means. To me, handicapping factors are overwhelmingly dependent variables. I would like to know how one would go about trying to improve handicapping results by using independent variables exclusively.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MONEY
These are independent variables.
Post time favorites win about 35% of the time.
In Turf Paradise dirt races, early speed wins many more races than late speed.
At some other track late speed might be king.
Next year late speed might be the way to go at Turf Paradise.
The only consistent variable besides post time favorites in horse racing is money.
Year after year Trainers, Jockeys, Owners & Horses that make the most money continue to win races and make more money.
Using any the above variables may help us with our handicapping, but none of them will make us better gamblers.
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In all races that have odds-on favorites at TUP do the favorites still win 35% of the time? If not, what good is that stat?
Does early speed win more races than late speed where there are 4 dedicated frontrunners in the race?
Are your examples of independent variables really independent if they are dependent on the makeup of each race or are they just averages?
