Sidebar

[omar2]

the reason I discarded that last race was not the class but I was thinking the trainer was pointing the horse for a turf route and I just dismissed the 6f race as a public w/o.
I've been doing this for the better part of 37 years and I'm telling you I learned from the best- Dick Mitchell, Howard Sartin and Ray Talbout by choosing one line. Players who average multiple lines are not sure which is the right line to use and not being sure means you should stay out of the race.
For example let's say horse is coming off a layoff and only raced once since then, assume it's 16k. The previous form cycle horse raced for 25k but his races look really bad-unusable. Now going back one form cycle from there the horse shows he ran for 35k. Now my instincts tell me to use the last race, why, because the trainer is telling you he's NOT THE SAME HORSE AS BEFORE because if he was the trainer would put him in for at least 25k to start.
And Mark Cramer wrote a book called FORM CYCLES also.
Now I'm going to show you a race, where I picked one line on each horse from Sat. 9/17 at Pimlico. I DID NOT PLAY THE RACE. I handicapped all 4 turf races but later realized I did not do a track profile for Pimlico. Even a 1 or 2 day profile will give you some insight on how the track is playing, E, P or S horses along with %MED. I can tell just from %MED if the track is favoring closers, early horses or neither[neutral]. Just look at a couple of E horses in the Derby- Spend A Buck and War Emblem. Their %Med #'s told me they had closing ability.
Look at the 3 screen shots. First I sorted by purse value(PV), then class rating(CR) and next by Deceleration column. I know class plays a major role on the grass and in sprints, horses that tire the least will show up. A horse with a fair amount of speed more often than not will show that speed late rather than early. And finally a screen shot of the results. Again I did not play the race and I was kicking myself afterwards for not even looking.
Look wat a simple 4-5 ex box gets you back and ALL BY PICKING 1 LINE ON A HORSE. Using top 2 horses from each screen.
OMAR