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Old 03-30-2017, 11:41 AM   #342
classhandicapper
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
If you haven't figured it out yet, you are missing that the delta doesn't help you compare different races on the same card as well as total distance traveled does. In isolation, it doesn't matter which you use for a single race. For a group of races, the total distance traveled for each horse is very useful. The delta doesn't help much. Make sense?
What you are saying is more relevant to speed figure makers that are trying to make accurate track variants and adjustments to their figures for ground loss.

A comparison handicapper would say:

Arrogate beat Gun Runner by 2 1/4 lengths. He spotted him 2-3 lengths at the start (or whatever your own adjustment might be for the start) and he covered around 46 feet more than him at various points in the race (give or take Trakus error) etc... Then he would try to quantify his overall trip relative to Gun Runner's, given how the track was playing, how the race flowed, etc...

That's very basic. You'd look at the trip in more detail but I don't want to write a book. :-)

You do that down the line for the major horses until you have an overall assessment of the race.

The conclusion would tell you how much better you think Arrogate was than Gun Runner and the others. Then what you think of Gun Runner and the others as horses would tell you how good Arrogate was.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 03-30-2017 at 11:50 AM.
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