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I have been betting races the same way for nearly 20 years and have 70k races in the results table and I don't really know what to expect in the months and years ahead.
If a whale was trying to make a single digit return and he hit a sour streak I don't know how he could know whether the downturn was temporary or permanent.[/QUOTE]
70k races is indeed a very small number to try and forecast what will happen with great certainty.
Since whales bet a larger volume of races they should have more of an idea where things are going. Even then, when gambling it is going to be hard to see when it is time to quit (or change strategy) because things have changed so much, as it has with racing.
Look at online poker. People have gotten very smart at what it takes to win and strategy keeps changing to be able to win. A lot of study.
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